Usefulness of a pluralistic approach in sentinel surveillance: seasonal influenza activity based on case counts per sentinel site in the National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Diseases Program and test counts, case counts, and test positivity from the National Hospital Organization.

In Japan, based on the National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Diseases (NESID) Program, influenza cases from ~5,000 sentinel sites are monitored weekly as part of influenza surveillance (as number of influenza cases/sentinel site). One limitation is that the number of influenza tests conducted is not reported. Separately, the National Hospital Organization (NHO), with ~140 hospitals, routinely publishes three indicators: number of influenza tests, influenza-positive case counts, and test positivity. We used NESID and NHO data from April 2011 to June 2022 to assess the usefulness of multiple indicators to monitor influenza activity. Temporal trends of the NHO and NESID indicators were similar, and NHO indicator levels well-correlated with those of the NESID indicator. Influenza positivity in the NHO data, however, showed an earlier rise and peak time compared to the NESID indicator. Importantly, through the non-epidemic summer periods and the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, a sizable number of influenza tests continued to be done at NHO hospitals, with results showing considerably low case counts and test positivity. These data show that a relatively small number of sentinel sites is sufficient to monitor influenza activity nationally, and, that utilizing multiple indicators can increase our confidence in situational awareness and data interpretations.

Epidemiologic Trends and Distributions of Imported Infectious Diseases Among Travelers to Japan Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic, 2016 to 2021: A Descriptive Study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the trends of imported infectious diseases among travelers to non-endemic countries during the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This article aimed to describe those among travelers to Japan. METHODS: This is a descriptive study based on national surveillance data. Imported infectious disease cases were defined as those with a reported overseas source of infection among 15 diseases pre-selected based on the probability and impact of importation. The number of notified cases from April 2016 to March 2021 were described by disease and time of diagnosis. The relative ratio and absolute difference in case counts-both by number and per arrival-were calculated by disease comparing those from the pandemic period (April 2020-March 2021) to the pre-pandemic period (April 2016-March 2020). RESULTS: A total of 3,524 imported infectious disease cases were diagnosed during the study period, including 3,439 cases before and 85 cases during the pandemic. The proportionate distribution of diseases changed but notification counts of all 15 diseases decreased during the pandemic. Accounting for arrivals, however, seven diseases showed a two-fold or greater increase, with a notable absolute increase per million arrivals for amebiasis (60.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 41.5-78.7), malaria (21.7; 95% CI, 10.5-33.0), and typhoid fever (9.3; 95% CI, 1.9-16.8). CONCLUSION: The epidemiology of imported infectious diseases changed during the pandemic. While the number of imported infectious disease cases decreased, the number of cases per arrivals increased considerably both in relative and absolute terms for several diseases of public health and clinical importance.

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19 requiring oxygen therapy, invasive mechanical ventilation, and death in Japan: A multicenter case-control study (MOTIVATE study).

INTRODUCTION: Since the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant became dominant, assessing COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against severe disease using hospitalization as an outcome became more challenging due to incidental infections via admission screening and variable admission criteria, resulting in a wide range of estimates. To address this, the World Health Organization (WHO) guidance recommends the use of outcomes that are more specific to severe pneumonia such as oxygen use and mechanical ventilation. METHODS: A case-control study was conducted in 24 hospitals in Japan for the Delta-dominant period (August-November 2021; "Delta") and early Omicron (BA.1/BA.2)-dominant period (January-June 2022; "Omicron"). Detailed chart review/interviews were conducted in January-May 2023. VE was measured using various outcomes including disease requiring oxygen therapy, disease requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), death, outcome restricting to "true" severe COVID-19 (where oxygen requirement is due to COVID-19 rather than another condition(s)), and progression from oxygen use to IMV or death among COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: The analysis included 2125 individuals with respiratory failure (1608 cases [75.7%]; 99.2% of vaccinees received mRNA vaccines). During Delta, 2 doses provided high protection for up to 6 months (oxygen requirement: 95.2% [95% CI:88.7-98.0%] [restricted to "true" severe COVID-19: 95.5% {89.3-98.1%}]; IMV: 99.6% [97.3-99.9%]; fatal: 98.6% [92.3-99.7%]). During Omicron, 3 doses provided high protection for up to 6 months (oxygen requirement: 85.5% [68.8-93.3%] ["true" severe COVID-19: 88.1% {73.6-94.7%}]; IMV: 97.9% [85.9-99.7%]; fatal: 99.6% [95.2-99.97]). There was a trend towards higher VE for more severe and specific outcomes. CONCLUSION: Multiple outcomes pointed towards high protection of 2 doses during Delta and 3 doses during Omicron. These results demonstrate the importance of using severe and specific outcomes to accurately measure VE against severe COVID-19, as recommended in WHO guidance in settings of intense transmission as seen during Omicron.

Infectious virus shedding duration reflects secretory IgA antibody response latency after SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Infectious virus shedding from individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is used to estimate human-to-human transmission risk. Control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission requires identifying the immune correlates that protect infectious virus shedding. Mucosal immunity prevents infection by SARS-CoV-2, which replicates in the respiratory epithelium and spreads rapidly to other hosts. However, whether mucosal immunity prevents the shedding of the infectious virus in SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals is unknown. We examined the relationship between viral RNA shedding dynamics, duration of infectious virus shedding, and mucosal antibody responses during SARS-CoV-2 infection. Anti-spike secretory IgA antibodies (S-IgA) reduced viral RNA load and infectivity more than anti-spike IgG/IgA antibodies in infected nasopharyngeal samples. Compared with the IgG/IgA response, the anti-spike S-IgA post-infection responses affected the viral RNA shedding dynamics and predicted the duration of infectious virus shedding regardless of the immune history. These findings highlight the importance of anti-spike S-IgA responses in individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 for preventing infectious virus shedding and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Developing medical countermeasures to shorten S-IgA response time may help control human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection and prevent future respiratory virus pandemics.

Immune escape and waning immunity of COVID-19 monovalent mRNA vaccines against symptomatic infection with BA.1/BA.2 and BA.5 in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Repeated emergence of variants with immune escape capacity and waning immunity from vaccination are major concerns for COVID-19. We examined whether the surge in Omicron subvariant BA.5 cases was due to immune escape or waning immunity through vaccine effectiveness (VE) evaluation. METHODS: A test-negative case-control study was conducted in 16 clinics/hospitals during the BA.1/BA.2-dominant and BA.5-dominant periods. VE against symptomatic infection was estimated after adjusting for age, sex, comorbidity, occupation, testing frequency, prior infection, close contact history, clinic/hospital, week, and preventive measures. Absolute VE (aVE) was calculated for 2/3/4 doses, compared to the unvaccinated. Relative VE (rVE) was calculated, comparing 3 vs 2 and 4 vs 3 doses. RESULTS: 13,025 individuals were tested during the BA.1/BA.2-dominant and BA.5-dominant periods with similar baseline characteristics. For BA.1/BA.2, aVE was 52 % (95 %CI:34-66) 14 days-3 months post-dose 2, 42 % (29-52) > 6 months post-dose 2, 71 % (64-77) 14 days-3 months post-dose 3, and 68 % (52-79) 3-6 months post-dose 3. rVE was 49 % (38-57) 14 days-3 months post-dose 3 and 45 % (18-63) 3-6 months post-dose 3. For BA.5, aVE was 56 % (27-73) 3-6 months post-dose 2, 32 % (12-47) > 6 months post-dose 2, 70 % (61-78) 14 days-3 months post-dose 3, 59 % (48-68) 3-6 months post-dose 3, 50 % (29-64) > 6 months post-dose 3, and 74 % (61-83) ≥ 14 days post-dose 4. rVE was 56 % (45-65) 14 days-3 months post-dose 3, 39 % (27-48) 3-6 months post-dose 3, 25 % (-2-45) > 6 months post-dose 3, and 30 % (-6-54) ≥ 14 days post-dose 4. CONCLUSIONS: Booster doses initially provided high protection against BA.5 at a level similar to that against BA.1/BA.2. However, the protection seemed shorter-lasting against BA.5, which likely contributed to the surge. Furthermore, rVE post-dose 4 was low even among recent vaccinees. These results support the introduction of variant-containing vaccines and emphasize the need for vaccines with longer duration of protection.

Infection-Induced SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence among Blood Donors, Japan, 2022.

A nationwide survey of SARS-CoV-2 antinucleocapsid seroprevalence among blood donors in Japan revealed that, as of November 2022, infection-induced seroprevalence of the population was 28.6% (95% CI 27.6%-29.6%). Seroprevalence studies might complement routine surveillance and ongoing monitoring efforts to provide a more complete real-time picture of COVID-19 burden.

Unprecedented increase in syphilis cases among heterosexual men and women in Japan, 2021-2022.

Based on national surveillance data, we describe an unprecedented increase in syphilis case reports in Japan, with a surge in 2021-2022 reaching 10141 cases in Week 42, 2022, a 1.7-fold increase over the same period in 2021. This already represented the highest annual case count in nearly half a century; by Week 52, 2022, the number reached 12 966, far surpassing the 7978 cases in 2021. Predominantly affecting heterosexual men and young women, the proportionate increase in primary and secondary syphilis cases suggests a true increase in incidence. The syphilis surge during the pandemic poses a serious public health concern and underscores the importance of adequate testing and preventive measures.

Effectiveness of BA.1- and BA.4/BA. 5-Containing Bivalent COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines Against Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection During the BA.5-Dominant Period in Japan.

In this multicenter, prospective, test-negative, case-control study in Japan, the effectiveness of both BA.1-containing and BA.4/BA.5-containing bivalent coronavirus disease 2019 mRNA vaccines against symptomatic infection during the BA.5-dominant period was high compared with no vaccination (65% and 76%) and moderate compared with monovalent vaccines administered over half a year earlier (46% combined).

Saturation time of exposure interval for cross-neutralization response to SARS-CoV-2: Implications for vaccine dose interval.

Evaluating the serum cross-neutralization responses after breakthrough infection with various SARS-CoV-2 variants provides valuable insight for developing variant-proof COVID-19 booster vaccines. However, fairly comparing the impact of breakthrough infections with distinct epidemic timing on cross-neutralization responses, influenced by the exposure interval between vaccination and infection, is challenging. To compare the impact of pre-Omicron to Omicron breakthrough infection, we estimated the effects on cross-neutralizing responses by the exposure interval using Bayesian hierarchical modeling. The saturation time required to generate saturated cross-neutralization responses differed by variant, with variants more antigenically distant from the ancestral strain requiring longer intervals of 2-4 months. The breadths of saturated cross-neutralization responses to Omicron lineages were comparable in pre-Omicron and Omicron breakthrough infections. Our results highlight the importance of vaccine dosage intervals of 4 months or longer, regardless of the antigenicity of the exposed antigen, to maximize the breadth of serum cross-neutralization covering SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages.

Specific COVID-19 risk behaviors and the preventive effect of personal protective equipment among healthcare workers in Japan.

As coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks in healthcare facilities are a serious public health concern, we performed a case-control study to investigate the risk of COVID-19 infection in healthcare workers. We collected data on participants' sociodemographic characteristics, contact behaviors, installation status of personal protective equipment, and polymerase chain reaction testing results. We also collected whole blood and assessed seropositivity using the electrochemiluminescence immunoassay and microneutralization assay. In total, 161 (8.5%) of 1,899 participants were seropositive between August 3 and November 13, 2020. Physical contact (adjusted odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1-5.6) and aerosol-generating procedures (1.9, 1.1-3.2) were associated with seropositivity. Using goggles (0.2, 0.1-0.5) and N95 masks (0.3, 0.1-0.8) had a preventive effect. Seroprevalence was higher in the outbreak ward (18.6%) than in the COVID-19 dedicated ward (1.4%). Results showed certain specific risk behaviors of COVID-19; proper infection prevention practices reduced these risks.

National seroepidemiological study of COVID-19 after the initial rollout of vaccines: Before and at the peak of the Omicron-dominant period in Japan.

Background: Based on routine surveillance data, Japan has been affected much less by COVID-19 compared with other countries. To validate this, we aimed to estimate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and examine sociodemographic factors associated with cumulative infection in Japan. Methods: A population-based serial cross-sectional seroepidemiological investigation was conducted in five prefectures in December 2021 (pre-Omicron) and February-March 2022 (Omicron [BA.1/BA.2]-peak). Anti-nucleocapsid and anti-spike antibodies were measured to detect infection-induced and vaccine/infection-induced antibodies, respectively. Logistic regression was used to identify associations between various factors and past infection. Results: Among 16 296 participants (median age: 53 [43-64] years), overall prevalence of infection-induced antibodies was 2.2% (95% CI: 1.9-2.5%) in December 2021 and 3.5% (95% CI: 3.1-3.9%) in February-March 2022. Factors associated with past infection included those residing in urban prefectures (Tokyo: aOR 3.37 [95% CI: 2.31-4.91], Osaka: aOR 3.23 [95% CI: 2.17-4.80]), older age groups (60s: aOR 0.47 [95% CI 0.29-0.74], 70s: aOR 0.41 [95% CI 0.24-0.70]), being vaccinated (twice: aOR 0.41 [95% CI: 0.28-0.61], three times: aOR 0.21 [95% CI: 0.12-0.36]), individuals engaged in occupations such as long-term care workers (aOR: 3.13 [95% CI: 1.47-6.66]), childcare workers (aOR: 3.63 [95% CI: 1.60-8.24]), food service workers (aOR: 3.09 [95% CI: 1.50-6.35]), and history of household contact (aOR: 26.4 [95% CI: 20.0-34.8]) or non-household contact (aOR: 5.21 [95% CI:3.80-7.14]) in February-March 2022. Almost all vaccinated individuals (15 670/15 681) acquired binding antibodies with higher titers among booster dose recipients. Conclusions: Before Omicron, the cumulative burden was >10 times lower in Japan (2.2%) compared with the US (33%), the UK (25%), or global estimates (45%), but most developed antibodies owing to vaccination.

Non-Omicron breakthrough infection with higher viral load and longer vaccination-infection interval improves SARS-CoV-2 BA.4/5 neutralization.

The immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 variants in COVID-19 cases are influenced by various factors including pre-existing immunity via vaccination and prior infection. Elucidating the drivers for upgrading neutralizing activity to SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 cases with pre-existing immunity will aid in improving COVID-19 booster vaccines with enhanced cross-protection against antigenically distinct variants, including the Omicron sub-lineage BA.4/5. This study revealed that the magnitude and breadth of neutralization activity to SARS-CoV-2 variants after breakthrough infections are determined primarily by upper respiratory viral load and vaccination-infection time interval. Extensive neutralizing breadth, covering even the most antigenically distant BA.4/5, was observed in cases with higher viral load and longer time intervals. Antigenic cartography depicted a critical role of the time interval in expanding the breadth of neutralization to SARS-CoV-2 variants. Our results illustrate the importance of dosing interval optimization as well as antigen design in developing variant-proof booster vaccines.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on pathological autopsy practices in Japan.

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, autopsies have provided valuable insights into the pathogenesis of COVID-19. The precise effect of this pandemic on autopsy procedures in Japan, especially in instances unrelated to COVID-19, has not yet been established. Therefore, we conducted a questionnaire survey from December 2020 to January 2021 regarding the status of pathological autopsy practices in Japan during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The questionnaire was sent to 678 medical facilities with pathologists, of which 227 responded. In cases where a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 was not made at the time of autopsy, many facilities counted them as suspected COVID-19 cases if pneumonia was suspected clinically. At around half of the sites, autopsies were prohibited for suspected COVID-19 cases. In addition, the number of autopsies of non-COVID-19 cases during the pandemic period was also investigated, and a significant decrease was observed compared with the incidence in the pre-pandemic period. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected not only the autopsies of COVID-19 cases but also the entire practice of pathological autopsies. It is necessary to establish a system that supports the implementation of pathological autopsy practices during the pandemic of an emerging infectious disease.

Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) Vaccine Effectiveness Against Symptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infection During Delta-Dominant and Omicron-Dominant Periods in Japan: A Multicenter Prospective Case-control Study (Factors Associated with SARS-CoV-2 Infection and the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines Study).

BACKGROUND: Although several coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines initially showed high efficacy, there have been concerns because of waning immunity and the emergence of variants with immune escape capacity. METHODS: A test-negative design case-control study was conducted in 16 healthcare facilities in Japan during the Delta-dominant period (August-September 2021) and the Omicron-dominant period (January-March 2022). Vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection was calculated for 2 doses for the Delta-dominant period and 2 or 3 doses for the Omicron-dominant period compared with unvaccinated individuals. RESULTS: The analysis included 5795 individuals with 2595 (44.8%) cases. Among vaccinees, 2242 (55.8%) received BNT162b2 and 1624 (40.4%) received messenger RNA (mRNA)-1273 at manufacturer-recommended intervals. During the Delta-dominant period, VE was 88% (95% confidence interval [CI], 82-93) 14 days to 3 months after dose 2 and 87% (95% CI, 38-97) 3 to 6 months after dose 2. During the Omicron-dominant period, VE was 56% (95% CI, 37-70) 14 days to 3 months since dose 2, 52% (95% CI, 40-62) 3 to 6 months after dose 2, 49% (95% CI, 34-61) 6+ months after dose 2, and 74% (95% CI, 62-83) 14+ days after dose 3. Restricting to individuals at high risk of severe COVID-19 and additional adjustment for preventive measures (ie, mask wearing/high-risk behaviors) yielded similar estimates, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In Japan, where most are infection-naïve, and strict prevention measures are maintained regardless of vaccination status, 2-dose mRNA vaccines provided high protection against symptomatic infection during the Delta-dominant period and moderate protection during the Omicron-dominant period. Among individuals who received an mRNA booster dose, VE recovered to a high level.

Social and Behavioral Factors Associated with Lack of Intent to Receive COVID-19 Vaccine, Japan.

Persons in Japan who did not intend to receive COVID-19 vaccines after widespread rollout were less likely than others to engage in preventive measures or to be afraid of getting infected or infecting others. They were also not less likely to engage in potentially high-risk behaviors, suggesting similar or higher exposure risks.

Impact of the Coming-of-Age Day and ceremony on the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Japan: A natural-experimental study based on national surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying the impact on COVID-19 transmission from a single event has been difficult due to the virus transmission dynamics, such as lag from exposure to reported infection, non-linearity arising from the person-to-person transmission, and the modifying effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions over time. To address these issues, we aimed to estimate the COVID-19 transmission risk of social events focusing on the Japanese Coming-of-Age Day and Coming-of-Age ceremony in which "new adults" practice risky behavior on that particular day. METHODS: Using national surveillance data in Japan in 2021 and 2022, we conducted difference-in-differences regression against COVID-19 incidences by setting "new adults" cases as the treatment group and the cases 1 year younger or older than these "new adults" as the control group. In addition, we employed a triple differences approach to estimate the risk of holding the Coming-Age ceremony by using a binary variable regarding the presence or absence of the ceremony in each municipality. RESULTS: We estimated the relative risks (RRs) of the Coming-of-Age Day as 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.57) in 2021 and 3.22 (95% CI 2.68-3.86) in 2022. The RR of the Coming-of-Age ceremony was also large, estimated as 2.83 (1.81-4.43) in 2022. CONCLUSIONS: When planning large social events, it is important to be aware of the unique risks associated with these gatherings, along with effective public health messages to best communicate these risks.

A case report of breakthrough infection with the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant and household transmission: Role of vaccination, anti-spike IgG and neutralizing activity.

There have been several reports of breakthrough infections, which are defined as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections among individuals who had received at least two doses of vaccine at least 14 days before the onset of infection, but data on the antibody titers, including SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody activity, and the clinical course of individuals with breakthrough infections are limited. We encountered a case of breakthrough infection with the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in a 31-year-old female healthcare worker (the index case, Case 1) and a secondary case (Case 2) in her unvaccinated 33-year-old husband. We studied the role of the anti-spike immunoglobulin G (IgG) and neutralizing antibody activity in the two case patients. Case 1 had high anti-spike IgG detected on day 3 of the illness, with low neutralizing antibody activity. The neutralizing antibody activity started to increase on day 5 of the illness. In Case 2 both the anti-spike IgG and the neutralizing antibody activity remained low from days 4-11 of illness, and the anti-spike IgG gradually increased from day 9. In Case 1, the fever broke within 4 days of onset, coinciding with the rise in neutralizing antibodies, whereas the fever took 7 days to resolve in Case 2. SARS-CoV-2 infection can occur even in vaccinated individuals, but vaccination may contribute to milder clinical symptoms because neutralizing antibodies are induced earlier in vaccinated individuals than in unvaccinated individuals.